The Strait of Hormuz crisis

Strait of Hormuz Crisis...

...The economic crisis the entire world is experiencing due to the closure of this vital global waterway awaits the decisions of negotiators. The art of negotiation compels the weaker party to concede on some demands. Studying the leverage available to the other side is crucial to minimizing concessions. Let the negotiators take their time. However, the passage of time and the prolongation of the crisis until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and returns to normal navigation will significantly impact the global economy. The reluctance of shipping companies with insurance contracts to transit the Strait of Hormuz due to the current tension weakens and affects international trade. If shipping companies agree to transit under the current circumstances, insurance companies will refuse to pay compensation in the event of a ship being hit by a missile or drone. We are approaching the end of the second quarter of the year, and losses are expected across all economic sectors due to the sudden increase in costs resulting from the crisis in the Strait. Hormuz and before that the American-Israeli war on Iran. The increase in costs came as a result of the rise in oil and gas prices...and that the agricultural sector, which is waiting for fertilizers coming from the Gulf, which, if they reach the agricultural lands, will be at a high price that increases the prices of agricultural products...and that the use of diesel, whose price has risen and which is used in agricultural machinery for irrigation to draw water from wells, increases costs. Then, transporting agricultural products from farms to cities and consumption areas further complicates the problem.

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The rise in gas prices and its impact on the industrial sector, and consequently the rise in electricity prices (which are generated from gas to power production lines in factories), further exacerbate the situation. Then there's the aviation and tourism sectors, with fears of dwindling jet fuel reserves and the resulting increase in ticket and air freight prices. Some African countries have been suffering from fuel shortages since the beginning of the crisis, forcing airlines to cancel flights or refuel only enough for a round trip. This means operating below the aircraft's normal capacity. For example, a plane with a capacity of 140 passengers might only carry 100, and it also reduces the amount of cargo it can carry in its holds. The weight of canceled passengers and cargo is offset by the weight of the fuel needed for the return flight. Aircraft have a specific takeoff and landing weight determined by the manufacturer, which is linked to the engines' ability to generate the power required for takeoff, flight, and landing. Therefore, the remaining months of 2026 will not carry [a significant number of] aircraft. There will be no profits this year for any economic sector except for the technology sector, artificial intelligence companies, and telecommunications...because recovery from this crisis will take time, and the course correction will begin in early 2027...when the crisis subsides and energy prices decrease, allowing for profits to cover the losses incurred since the beginning of the crisis...and European countries have reduced costs and fees for electricity consumption in industrial facilities...in an attempt to lower costs, but what can the world's poor countries do that resort to raising electricity prices due to the lack of reserves to support the industrial sector during this crisis...? The art of negotiation to save this planet requires the stronger party to accept 70% of its conditions and concede the rest, while the weaker party must accept 30% of the gains according to the cards and leverage it possesses...to save the world from a severe economic crisis in the event of renewed fighting and a return to the language of weapons and the military machine...and the current crisis highlights the continued importance and influence of oil on the global economy despite the existence of alternative energy sources Renewable energy sources, but they do not produce the same power output as petroleum, which is needed for production lines in factories or engines in airplanes.

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